October 31, 2005

Get Ready for a Fight

Well, we here at CBN predicted it. I said in this space on Friday that Samuel Alito would be the President’s pick, and that was correct. Why? Well, a few ideas here. First, he’s right in the mold of an Antonin Scalia. He’s called “Scalito” for goodness sake. (He’s Italian American just like Scalia not to mention his judicial philosophy is right in line as well). Also, he has ruled on the pro-life issue before. He was the judge who dissented in the 1991 Casey v. Planned Parenthood decision where he said a woman SHOULD notify her husband if she’s having an abortion. Finally, and this is really the most important point, Alito is not "in your face” like some other judges.

Janice Rogers Brown and Michael Luttig would have been great Bush picks, BUT their opinions generally were sometimes too forceful where Democrats may have had a field day and painted them as right wing ideologues. With Alito, the President may be able to convince a handful of Democrats that Alito may be more conservative than O’Connor but he at least is measured, reasonable and his opinions are well thought out intellectually. Alito doesn’t have an abrasive style to his writing, and that I think makes a difference. Having said all that, the talk is already centering on a filibuster. Here’s what some of my sources on the Hill are telling me.

This from a Senate democratic source:

“Bush just picked himself a big fight...Look for the gang of 14 to be back in play. I think you'll also hear a lot of folks say this proves that the real reason for Miers imploding was the right, and not the documents...Can't believe w is picking a fight like this with only a 39 percent aproval...”

And from a republican source:

"I think the Dems would like to filibuster him based on his Casey ruling, etc., but he is perhaps as well qualified as you can get, so they would have to oppose him solely on political grounds. Americans won’t buy that."

How will this all play out? Let me state it right now. It’s not too early at all to make a prediction because both sides are already digging in for a fight. I predict there will be a huge political fight between Senate Democrats and Republicans and a huge fight between liberal and conservative special interest groups. Eventually, Democrats will threaten a filibuster. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist will come out and say 'I’ll use the nuclear option if I have to.' At that point, it will be left up to the Gang of 14 to decide Alito’s fate. I think at that point cooler heads prevail and the gang of 14 decides not to filibuster. I just think in the end Republicans in that Gang of 14 like McCain, Warner and Graham will be too much of a force on the gang of 14 red state democrats like Mark Pryor, Ken Salazar, and Mary Landrieu, and so they’ll vote not to filibuster. At that point, Democrats won’t have enough votes to filibuster and that will be that. The situation could change but at this point at least, that’s how I see it.

EMail David Brody With Your Comments ...