Israel's War to Come

By Chris Mitchell

Middle East Bureau Chief

CBNNews.com-- SYRIAN BORDER- Historian Michael Oren compares this summer’s conflict between Israel and Hezbollah with the Spanish Civil War. Then, the menace of Nazi Germany emerged onto the world stage. Today, a militant Iran threatens not just Israel’s future, but the future of western civilization.

"The world had a good warning about what Nazi Germany was really all about, but they didn't do anything about it, Oren said. "It was too late and the Nazis were upon them and conquering most of Europe. Here in this war, we've had a good foresight, a good vision of what Iranian backed Islamic terrorism is going to look like."

Oren believes the war between Israel and Hezbollah was a great warning to the rest of the world about the dangers posed by Hezbollah and Iran and that the outcome of this war laid the seeds for the next.

"If I was Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah or the leaders of Iran, I would be pressing for a conflict at the earliest possible date to deny Israel the ability to regain its equilibrium, to catch its breath. Israel has a lot of work to do in viewing some of the shortcomings of this war," Oren said.

The war exposed major Israeli military shortcomings.

It depended too heavily on air power alone. It failed to launch a major ground offensive until far too late in the campaign. Logistics broke down and some soldiers fought for days without adequate food or water.

At the end of Israel’s longest war in modern history, Israel found Hezbollah still fighting and its state sponsors Syrian and Iran more determined than ever to destroy Israel.

Damascus lies 40 miles to the north east of the Israeli-Syrian border. It's been Israel's quietest border for more than three decades. But after the conflict with Hezbollah, Israel military leaders have to prepare for the possibility for a wider war with a more defiant Syria.

Syrian President Assad Bashar seldom spoke more defiantly than after the war. He even implied Syria would take back the Golan Heights by force.

Although Syrian conventional forces seem no match for the superior Israeli army, Syria’s formidable missile arsenal with scud missiles can be equipped with biological or chemical weapons and reach anywhere in Israel.

Many expect missiles to be a major part of the next conflict.

Oren said, "The next war will be a war of missiles not be at the peripheral areas of Israel but at the center, in Tel Aviv, in what's called the greater Tel Aviv area, the Gush Dan area will be the major target."

In addition to the Syrian threat, Palestinian terror groups learned lessons from Hezbollah through the war. They plan to follow Hezbollah's example and use longer range missiles against Israel. Israel's nightmare scenario consists of a three front war with Syria and Iran while Palestinian groups hit targets like the strategic port of Ashkelon from behind.

However, one military bright spot for the IDF during the war was its ability to eliminate long range launchers minutes after they were fired. Retired General Ya'acov Amidror served for years as the head of Israel's national threat assessment division.

"I think what the air force achieved in this area is superb. Ninety-five of the long range missiles or rockets that were used against Israel destroyed within five minutes. And this is very important for us if we will have to deal with missiles in the future, launchers, rockets, Scuds and so on because these capabilities can be used with different systems," Oren said.

Israel's defensive arsenal also includes the state of the art arrow anti-missile system. It might need this defensive shield against not only Syria but an ever more aggressive and militant Iran.

"Iran is moving against Israel on multiple fronts, but not only against Israel, it's also moving against the relatively moderate Muslim governments of Jordan and Egypt and the Gulf monarchies. Everybody is imperiled by Iran in the region," Oren said.

Regardless of the threats posed by Iran, Syria, and Palestine, Amidror believes the IDF will be ready.

Oren said, "Within a few months we will be in a better position because we will absorb into our systems the lessons of Lebanon, but the IDF is ready for a war tomorrow morning. I might say that some of the commanders on the ground were eager for a new round tomorrow morning."

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