Let me lay out why picking Sarah Palin may end up going down in political history as a masterful stroke of genius by John McCain and his team. There are pitfalls, no doubt about it. But let’s look at why this pick makes complete sense in so many different ways.
For the most part, social conservatives and the Evangelical base are now about to come fully on board. Obama’s enthusiasm gap has narrowed considerably. Anytime you have motivated Evangelicals behind you it means your candidate is in a good spot. Watch for pro-family organizations and the McCain team to now start working together to get out the vote. This CAN NOT be emphasized enough. Talk about a Holy Ghost party!
Also, it’s going to be very hard to stereotype Sarah Palin. She DOES NOT fit in a nice tidy little box. She appeals to pro-life Christians but she can also play well with Independents and moderates because of her reformer image, her taxing of big oil, wasteful spending, etc. Plus her husband is a union guy. The campaign can play her as a junior female maverick John McCain.
On the female front, I don’t suspect she’ll get a lot of Hillary voters to support her. But don’t forget about Independent and moderate women who are intrigued at the idea of making history. Look, we’ve already seen so far that this is a strong woman with great communication skills. I mean she’s a mother of five who went back to work three days after giving birth to her last child. A working mom. She’s the PTA President who made it to vice-presidential nominee. There are going to be votes out there in the “You go girl” category. Plus, even on the life issue, she belongs to a group called “Feminists for Life” which looks at the women’s issues as it relates to abortion. You can’t paint that as a right wing position or organization.
Also on the female front, Joe Biden is now in a box. How does he go after her in the debate on October 2nd without coming across as a bully and condescending? The bar will be very high for him and low for her. It could be very easy for her to exceed expectations. She’s going to have to “bone up” big time on foreign policy but if she has a firm grasp of the issues during the debate ( a big “if”) then the inexperience issue could be less of factor.
Here’s another point. Palin looks to be a very bright, articulate woman with loads of personality. (And yes, she’s attractive which helps too) Polls out already show people tend to like her a lot. She’s very popular in Alaska. She seems to have gravitational pull. Connecting to an audience is very important and it seems like she’ll have no problem doing that. So her real challenge is to prove that she’s not only smart but that she understands World affairs and has a clear grasp of the facts. That’s unknown at this stage though I’m sure some reporter will ask her a question like, “Who’s the President of Uzbekistan?” she better be ready for that.
This pick also softens John McCain’s image. Look, the guy is a little rough around the edges in public but having Palin at his side will help him. It will probably help him with women voters and not make him look so much like a “testosterone thinking man”
Let me also make one more point. And this may be the most interesting part. By picking Palin, I believe the parameters of the contest have changed. Let me explain. McCain loses the experience argument to a degree but he also put a major dent in Obama’s “March to history” theme. Basically, in a way this has become Palin vs. Obama and now voters are going to have to choose what kind of history they want to make. Plus, (this thing has so many layers) every time the Obama campaign brings up Palin’s inexperience, the McCain campaign brings up Obama’s inexperience. And they go one further by saying that actually Obama has less experience than Palin. Here’s the point: In a strange sort of way, they have cast Palin and Obama on the same level. Comparing a VP prospect like Palin to a presidential prospect like Obama could very well be a winning hand for the McCain campaign because it brings Obama down to a VP level.
For all the Palin critics out there, I understand there are problems with the Palin pick. We will discuss those in upcoming posts but the read at this point is that this VP decision makes tons of sense on many different fronts
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