Waziristan: Terror Haven for Jihadists?

By Erick Stakelbeck

CBN News Terror Analyst

November 15, 2006

CBNNews.com- It's a question that's haunted Americans ever since 9/11. Where is Osama bin Laden? No one knows for sure, but many intelligence and military analysts believe that bin Laden--along with his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri--is hiding in western Pakistan.

The area is called Waziristan. It's roughly the size of New Jersey, and home to some of the most rugged terrain on earth.Thousands of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters fled here after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001. They found protection and allegiance from many of the region's 800,000 residents.

That led the U.S. to pressure Pakistan to send in forces. Military Analyst Bill Roggio says the Pakistanis lost as many as 3,000 troops there over the past two years.

"They were taking a really bad beating in the Northwest frontier province," Roggio said. "Their columns were being ambushed, their bases were under attack, they were losing local support. So Pakistan was basically losing. They were fighting an insurgency in north, and south Waziristan and they were losing."

Roggio monitors the situation closely and says heavy casualties led Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to strike the deal--one that Roggio calls a disaster.

He said, "The signing of this accord was basically designed to humiliate the Pakistani government."

Basically, the Pakistani government has withdrawn to several large bases. They've abandoned outposts, they've given up control over the border crossings into Afghanistan, they've given the control over to the local tribes--basically, to the Taliban.

There are scarier details to this agreement, as reported by Roggio and counterterrorism consultant Daveed Gartentstein-Ross in The Weekly Standard:

-the signing took place inside a soccer stadium in north Waziristan.

-heavily armed Taliban fighters searched Pakistani government officials as they entered.

-a large al-Qaeda flag covered the stadium's scoreboard.

-as part of the accord, Pakistan agreed to release 2,500 Taliban and al-Qaeda linked fighters from prison.

-The Pakistani military agreed not to operate in Waziristan.

Pakistan also turned over weapons to the Waziri fighters.

And the jihadists?

Although the militants make some concessions--like they promise not to carry out cross border raids into Afghanistan--it's not enforcable, given the degree to which the Pakistani military has agreed to withdraw from the area.

Gartenstein-Ross goes further, calling it a surrender to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

Gartenstein-Ross said, "The Waziristan Accord is a shockingly one-sided deal. Within military circles and intelligence circles, there's a lot of speculation as to what Musharraf's motivation can possibly be. And there's a consensus that, unfortunately, he's losing his grip on power."

Pakistani officials told CBN News a different story. They say it was the Waziri jihadists who'd had enough of the fighting--and that they approached the Musharraf government about a deal. Not the other way around.

"The Waziristan Accord is not a good thing--it's a very good thing. It's a new step," said Mahmud Ali Durrani, Pakistan ambassador to the U.S.

Durrani says waziristan, which has always been largely independent of the central government, remains Pakistani territory.

"We have dug out some of the al-Qaeda hideouts in Waziristan," Murrani said. "Very difficult areas, which were no go areas, we've cleared them. We have now control over both North and South Waziristan."

He insists the accord was struck with tribal elders and religious scholars, not the Taliban or al-Qaeda.

Durrani said, "I think, post-9/11, Pakistan has ferreted out most of the leadership of al-Qaeda out of our cities, out of our tribal areas. And I think the Taliban leadership--I don't think, whatever the remnants are--they are not capable of launching any major attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan or anywhere in the world."

Pakistan is reportedly considering similar deals with other tribal regions. So far, the Bush administration has been publicly supportive of the Waziristan deal. Gartenstein-Ross says they may not have a choice.

"Regardless of how bad Musharraf has been as of late when it comes to making sacrifices to the terrorists, it would be far worse if you were to undermine his power and you ended up with basically an al -Qaeda-affiliated group coming to power in Pakistan in a nuclear-armed Muslim state," Gartenstein-Ross said.

Pakistan says it retains the military option if the accord doesn't work out, and it looks like they'll need it. According to NATO, attacks launched from Waziristan have increased by 300 percent since the agreement was signed, leading some to say that Pakistan needs a strategy more drastic than just winning hearts and minds in the region

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