Election Round Three: Israelis Head to Polls Next Week in Unprecedented Election

JERUSALEM, Israel – The March 2 election will be the third in the past year for Israeli voters.  That is unprecedented.  After the past two elections in April and September of 2019, neither the Likud party of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the Blue and White party led by former Israeli IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz could form a governing coalition of 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.  Since no government emerged, Netanyahu—prime minister since 2009—remains the leader of Israel for the time being.

Current polls show another tight race, raising the specter of a fourth election.  The latest surveys show likud pulling slightly ahead for the first time since December.  Blue and White had led in all the polls until the end of last week.  But the three latest polls give Likud a one seat edge over blue and white, with both parties tallying 32-35 seats.  That is far short of the 61 seats needed to build a new government.

The two largest parties could form a government by themselves, but Likud will not abandon its alliance with the ultra-orthodox religious parties (Shas, United Torah Judaism); and Blue & White refuses to sit in a government in which Netanyahu remains prime minister following his indictment on fraud and bribery charges by Israel's attorney general.

Another key player in the past two elections has been Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the predominantly Russian Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel, Our Home") party.  Although his party has been a key component of conservative governments in the past, Lieberman, an avowed secularist, now will not sit with the religious parties and he has also rejected sitting with the Arab parties in a leftist coalition.  The Arab Joint List (a coalition of several parties), is expected to be the third largest party in the next Knesset. Lieberman, more than anyone, is responsible for the stalemate in the past political year.  He hopes to be a kingmaker again after March 2, but his party has seen a slight drop in some polls.

Turnout will determine whether the stalemate will continue through another election.  Some leaders of the parties on the right are hopeful that a recent surge by Likud and President Donald Trump's peace plan will inspire voters to take advantage of the opportunity to annex large portions of Judea and Samaria and to incorporate them as part of Israel.  

Netanyahu promises to annex the strategic Jordan Valley (on the border with Jordan), important for Israel's security.  He's also promised to include the Jewish communities near Hebron, along with the tomb of the patriarchs (Abraham, Isaac and Jacob) as part of Israel. 

These are policies advocated by Naftali Bennett, leader of the Yamina ("New Right") party and current defense minister.

Overshadowing it all is the prime minister's indictment.  He has strongly maintained his innocence during three years of investigation and says it is part of a prosecutorial "witch hunt." 

His opponents strongly disagree and are calling on him to resign.  But the most recent Channel 13 poll reveals that 44 percent of those surveyed believe Netanyahu would make the best prime minister, a whopping 14 percent edge over Benny Gantz at 30 percent. 

The courts have ordered Netanyahu's trial to begin on March 17, just two weeks after the elections.  He may very well be in the midst of trying to assemble a government then.  If voters give him a mandate to govern on March 2, it could change the course of his public court battle.