Scrap the Nuclear Deal? This Could Lead to Real Change in Iran

Like Assad did against Syrian civilians, would the Iranian regime use chemical weapons against its own people if they organized to overthrow the ayatollahs? Watch Gary Lane's interview with Misagh Parsa for more insights.  

Should the United States remain in the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, or abandon it? 

European leaders, Israel, and American politicians are all weighing-in, trying to influence President Trump's decision before the May 12th deadline.

A prominent Iranian Professor of Sociology at Dartmouth College has some thoughts of his own, but not about the nuclear deal. 

Misagh Parsa suggests the goal of the United States should be regime change and restoring democracy to Iran. 

Parsa, is author of the book, Demorcacy In Iran. Why It Failed and How It Might Succeed.

He said It would be extremely difficult for Iranians to achieve democracy without a new revolution.

Parsa said after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranians expected democracy would replace the Shah's monarchy. But once in power, the Ayatollah Khomeini excluded from government everyone who challenged him. He and the leaders of the theocracy seized the economic assets of the country. 

Today, more than 50% of the economy is controlled by the clergy, 25-40% is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards.

"The private sector has basically disappeared," said Parsa.

And societal benefits are in the hands of a select few.

Parsa suggested most Iranians are more concerned about the economy and human rights then they are about the future of nuclear deal. Few Iranians can point to any benefit of the agreement.

In Tehran, 25-year-old architect Shadi Gholami said "We do not feel any particular impact especially in our economy or on our life. It is as if such a deal does not exist at all."

Parsas said most people are resisting the Islamic Republic because it has imposed restrictions upon the population that have made their lives more difficult.

33-year old Tehran sales manager Ladan Shiri suggested government corruption is also a concern.

"Our economic problems have nothing to do with the deal or Trump. Our problem is that our officials just think of their own pocket," said Ladan Shiri. "If they really thought about the people and not just their own profits, our people would not have the troubles they have today. This is the main problem."

Parsa urges the United States to use caution in responding to the Iranian regime. He says President Trump should avoid taking steps like those taken by Saddam Hussein which only rallied Iranians behind the Islamic leadership.

"Ayatollah Khomeini's regime was almost overthrown, finished in 1980, 1981. Saddam Hussein attacked and that ended up uniting the people and the government fighting against an external enemy."  

In response to suspected election fraud in 2009, Iranians launched a "Green Revolution" They hoped mass protests would bring about change by replacing the oppressive policies of the Islamic Republic with democratic reforms. Instead, the regime conducted an armed crackdown that led to the arrest of hundreds of demonstrators and reformist leaders. At least eight protestors were killed.

Another wave of protests started in December 2017 and spread to more than 100 Iranian cities. The demonstrations continued for more than a month, but when they failed to muster the active support of a majority of Iranians, they soon fizzled out. 

So, how could another pro-democracy effort succeed where others in recent years have failed? 

Parsa says a better organized, broader segment of Iranian society must become actively involved in demanding change.
 
"They need to go on strikes, so the working class and the merchant class should shut down the economy, should shut down the factories, businesses, all of those things and that would paralyze the economy. And that would render the regime completely vulnerable to overthrow, it becomes much easier."
 
Parsa thinks the Revolutionary Guards and pro-regime militias would be unable to sufficiently contain widespread demonstrations throughout the country. He says army troops would be called upon to put down the reformists, but 90% of the army are conscripts who would likely resist orders to open fire on their friends, relatives, and neighbors.