january 20, 2006

New bin Laden Audiotape Airs on Al-Jazeera

It looks like the rumors of Osama bin Laden’s death were premature. Just last week, National Review Online columnist Michael Ledeen-whose work on Iran and the War on Terror is simply outstanding- reported the following: “according to Iranians I trust, Osama bin Laden finally departed this world in mid-December. The al Qaeda leader died of kidney failure and was buried in Iran, where he had spent most of his time since the destruction of al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The Iranians who reported this note that this year's message in conjunction with the Muslim Haj came from his number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, for the first time.”

Likewise, over the weekend, a top Australian terrorism expert told the Sydney Morning Herald  that “It does seem reasonably convincing based on the evidence that I've been provided with that he's certainly either severely incapacitated or dead at this stage.”

Some experts immediately dismissed these reports as pure folly. But at the time, neither of these statements seemed like a stretch. Remember, we hadn’t heard from bin Laden at all since a December 2004 audiotape, and hadn’t actually seen him since a videotape released in October of that same year (which aired just prior to the U.S. presidential election).

Now comes a new audiotape, released to the Arab television network Al-Jazeera (which essentially functions as Al-Qaeda’s media propaganda arm). Preliminary reports from U.S. officials suggest that the voice on the tape is indeed bin Laden’s, and that it was recorded sometime in December. Here’s a sampling of what the reclusive terror master had to say, courtesy of CBS.com:

…what prompted me to speak is the repeated deceptions of your President Bush.

In respect of his comment on the opinion polls in America, which alluded to the fact that the overwhelming majority amongst you are in favor of withdrawing the troops from Iraq. However, he objected to this wish and said that the withdrawal of troops would send the wrong message to the enemies … and that it would be better to fight them in their own lands, rather than to have them fight us on our own lands.

And in my response to these deceptions I say: Indeed the war in Iraq is ablaze relentlessly and the operations in Afghanistan are on constant escalation in our favor, with the grace of Allah. The figures released by the Pentagon indicate an increase in the number of your dead and injured, in addition to the tremendous material losses.

It sounds to me like Bin Laden is trying to appeal to the anti-war, appeasement-minded Left in this country and abroad by suggesting that al-Qaeda’s operation in Iraq and Afghanistan remain in full swing, and that U.S. casualties are mounting. In essence, he wants Americans to think that the sky is falling, and that Al-Qaeda is still the terrorist powerhouse that it was prior to 9/11, despite the devastating losses it has sustained in terms of manpower, funding, and resources thanks to the American-led war on terror. As my friend Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has reported  previously, this outreach to the anti-war, appeasement-minded left  is a common Al-Qaeda tactic. Here’s more from the new UBL tape:

Anyone can testify that the war against America and her allies is no longer confined to Iraq as he claims. Iraq has rather become a point of preparation and mobilization of the qualified capabilities.

His assertion that Iraq has become a launching pad for terrorist operations around the world is not a false one, as I have written here before. But it is, again, also a favorite argument of the anti-war left (e.g. Iraq is more dangerous now than it was under the Saddam regime). And now for the tape’s most troubling excerpt:

On the other hand, the Mujahideen have with the grace of Allah succeeded in breaking through all the security measures undertaken by the transgressing nations time after time, and the evidence for this is what you saw in terms of explosions in the most important capitals of the countries within this belligerent alliance.

We haven’t been touched by a major act of terrorism in the U.S. since 9/11. While most experts credit this to outstanding intelligence work on the part of the U.S. and its allies--not to mention a bit of luck, like in these arrests in California--bin Laden is saying it is merely an example of Al-Qaeda’s superior patience and preparation. Is he correct, or is he just trying to scare us? Tough to say. Al-Qaeda has certainly been weakened over the past few years. But there are still signs that major plots are being hatched against America as I write this-and that al-Qaeda and other terror groups are indeed active on U.S. soil (as a matter of fact, we’ve known that for some time). As for preparation, remember: the 9/11 attacks took five years for al-Qaeda to plan and carry out.

And now, for the most interesting part of the tape: bin Laden, after threatening new attacks on the U.S., actually offers Americans a “truce.”

We are a nation that Allah banned from lying and stabbing others in the back, hence both parties of the truce will enjoy stability and security to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by war.

In response to the substance of the polls in the US, which indicate that Americans do not want to fight Muslims ... we do not mind offering a long-term truce based on just conditions that we will stick to.

There is no problem in this solution, but it will prevent hundreds of billions from going to influential people and war lords in America - those who supported Bush's electoral campaign - and from this, we can understand Bush and his gang's insistence on continuing the war.

If your desire for peace, stability, and reconciliation was true, here we have given you the answer to your call.

Again, an appeal to the Michael Moore crowd (rebuilding the "American-ravaged" nations of Afghanistan and Iraq, Bush is a warmonger, etc.). Whether they're foolish enough to actually consider such a truce is another matter entirely. 

A last observation: the tape’s release came just six days after U.S. air strikes took out four leading Al-Qaeda operatives and apparently just missed al-Qaeda’s number two man, Ayman al-Zawahiri.  No coincidence here. Al-Qaeda is trying to tell us that they are still alive and kicking, despite their numerous setbacks.

EMail Erick Stakelbeck With Your Comments ...