May 26, 2006

A Palestinian Civil War?

Are Palestinians headed for civil war? If you read the newspapers headlines for the past few weeks, it appears that way:

“Bomb Targets PA Security Chief”

“Fatah Threatens to Take Clashes with Hamas into its West Bank Strongholds”

“Abbas Ally Killed in Gaza; Hamas Men Kidnapped”

“Fatah Expected to Retaliate for Hamas Attacks”

Almost daily, gunfights, assassinations, and kidnappings mark a growing conflict between Hamas and Fatah. One commentator describes this confrontation “... as the biggest internal Palestinian conflict in memory, perhaps in history.” This struggle pits Hamas, who won the parliamentary elections on January 25, against Fatah, the ruling party among Palestinians for decades.

After Hamas’ election victory, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (and the head of Fatah) made several moves designed to obstruct the new Hamas led parliament. He transferred authority of the official Palestinian media, the border crossings, and some security apparatus under his authority and away from Hamas. Fatah also blamed Hamas for the Palestinian international isolation and the PA’s inability to pay workers salaries. The moves seem designed to undermine Hamas, expedite its collapse, and force new elections where Fatah could resume control.

Both sides appear to be preparing for a confrontation. Just a few days ago, Abbas declared plans to expand his independent security force from 1,500 men to 10,000 men. Abbas' security force would be a deterrent to the independent 3,000 strong security militia recently set up by Hamas. (Ironically – some say foolishly – Israel announced it plans to authorize the transfer of arms and ammunition for Abbas’ expanded presidential guard. Later, Abbas appointed a known terrorist – Mahmoud Damra - as the head of this militia known as Force 17.)

And in a direct challenge to Hamas, on May 25, Abbas declared that if Hamas did not accept his new “National Referendum Document” within ten days, then he would call for a Palestinian national referendum on a two state solution. This “National Referendum Document” drafted by convicted murderer Marwan Barghouti and other jailed Palestinians calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with Jerusalem as its capitol.

Abbas’ challenge is one more way of confronting Hamas with the aim of forcing new elections and putting Fatah in power once again. However, one Palestinian observer told me Hamas believes Fatah is dreaming if it thinks it will assume power once more. While the inter-Palestinian conflict goes on, one analyst warned the situation could dissolve into “... the emergence of a Somalia-like anarchic environment dominated by local gangs.” It could also contribute to the rise of “fertile ground for al-Qaeda to penetrate the Israeli-Palestinian arena.”

While most observers feel both sides have too much at stake to allow the situation to explode into a full scale civil war, one incident could provide the spark to plunge these Palestinian factions into a full blown conflict. It’s one more tinder box here in the Middle East and one more reason to “Pray for the Peace of Jerusalem!”

 

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