MARCH 27, 2006

Russia Disappears

Between 1993 and 2005, Russia’s population shrank by the approximate size of Denmark.

5.8 million people… gone.

Former Russian prime minister and spy chief Yevgeny Primakov has warned that “Russia will not exist in the middle of the 21st century” unless Moscow begins to address crashing demographic trends now. He says Russia’s “national idea” should now be a commitment that “our country will survive.”

Statistics show that 261 people are born every minute in the world, while 107 die. That puts the global birthrate at about 2.4 times the death rate.

But the trend is reversed in Russia. In Russia, three people are born every minute, and five die. Russia’s population, now at 142 million, may drop to 100 million by 2035 if the demographic situation has not improved.

A member of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences told the Russian parliament that “rampant alcohol abuse and consumption of narcotics is the decisive factor in Russia's depopulation.”

It’s interesting that he did not mention Russia’s abortion rate, which is astronomical. It’s been reported that 6 out of 10 pregnancies end in abortion, and that the average woman has had three abortions. I was not able to verify that.

What is almost as startling as this national disappearing act is the collective global yawn in response to it. This would have been a very, very major story during the Cold War, but in 2006, Russia as a political player matters less and less every day. Its Gross Domestic Product is running neck and neck with Botswana’s. Its economy is about the size of Portugal’s. Its chief relevance is its nuclear force, which itself is becoming less relevant with the passage of time.

This issue will reach critical mass when Russia is no longer able or willing to defend vast stretches of uninhabited frontier, at which point China might decide to reclaim lost real estate in the Far East, and growing Islamic Republics in the Caucasus might decide to carve up Russia’s belly.