The chances of a recession in the United States are now above 50 percent, according to research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve.

The San Francisco Fed is basing their grim outlook on the European debt crisis.

"Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic," economist Travis Berge, research associate Early Elias, and research adviser Oscar Jorda wrote in a paper released Monday.

"A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession," Jorda said.

Reuters reports the bank predicts the chance of recession will drop off after the second half of next year.