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Why Russia Could Emerge the Victor in Syrian Civil War

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JERUSALEM, Israel – Despite a ceasefire agreement inside Syria, the reality on the ground has not changed. In fact, some believe the situation could get even worse, allowing Russia to be on the winning side of the five-year civil war.

In Munich, the U.S., Russia and European powers agreed to allow humanitarian relief into Syria and a "cessation of hostilities" throughout the country. Still, the Russians continue to bomb rebel forces, supported by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

"The Russians will not stop their air raids and, with the ground support of Hezbollah, Iranian and other Shiite militias worldwide, coming from Afghanistan, from Tajikistan, from other places, I think the Russians and the Iranians want to make the Assad regime survive and they will do everything now. They are on the offense," said Micky Segall with the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. "I think they will not stop at nothing."

Syrian and Iranian forces, aided by Russian airstrikes, are closing in on Syria's largest city, Allepo. If they succeed in taking the city, it could change the course of the war and be a major blow to President Obama's Middle East policy.

Located in northwest, Syria, Aleppo is one of the rebels' last strongholds. The coalition fighting the Assad regime had reached a stalemate until Russia came in and tipped the scales.

"Some months into the Russian intervention, the sense right now is that it's really beginning to take hold and have a powerful effect on the battlefield to the detriment of the rebellion and to the advantage of the Assad regime," Middle East analyst Jonathan Spyers told CBN News. 

While the fate of a far-away Syrian city might seem unimportant to Americans, it represents a major geo-political shift in the region.

"The substantial Russian military buildup in Syria and in the eastern Mediterranean is also shifting the strategic balance in this part of the Mediterranean," said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. "So I call on calm, de-escalation and a political solution to the conflict in Syria."
 
Yet Spyers believes Russia wants a battlefield solution.

"If they succeed in that, it would mean that the Syrian map of protagonists so to speak would leave only the regime itself with the Russians, Iranians and Iranian backers, the Kurds and Islamic State," Spyers explained. "It will be a very major change. That is [and] was, I think, [what] Putin and his allies are going for."
 
If Putin, Assad and Iran succeed, it means a setback for the United States and the West.

"If they achieve this goal, [they] would achieve strategic victory in a vital conflict zone in the Middle East. There's no such thing as a vacuum or zero sum game," Spyers continued. "So strength, growing strength for the Russians and the Iranians means growing perceived weakness for the West."

Segall says America's retreat has created a vacuum for others to fill.  
 
"Unfortunately we are seeing the American forces and even American policy – Middle East policy – retreating and into this vacuum that is being created in the area we can see Russia and other forces are crawling in, filling this void of American presence that enabled stability in the Middle East," Segall said. "We are now in the midst of historic change in the Middle East and the United States is not there." 

A rebel defeat also would eventually endanger American allies in the region.  
From an Israeli point of view, for example, and for a Jordanian point of view, the implications are very real. Because what they would mean if this scenario plays out -- again it may not but if it plays out -- is that the regime, slash Russians, will [be] back in control of the border areas between Syria and Jordan and of course between Syria and Israel. From an Israeli point of view this is worrying indeed. 
 
Such a scenario would put Assad and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps alongside Hezbollah on Israel's northern border, with the backing of Russian air support.

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About The Author

Chris Mitchell
Chris
Mitchell

In a time where the world's attention is riveted on events in the Middle East, CBN viewers have come to appreciate Chris Mitchell's timely reports from this explosive region of the world. Chris brings a Biblical and prophetic perspective to these daily news events that shape our world. He first began reporting on the Middle East in the mid-1990s. Chris repeatedly traveled there to report on the religious and political issues facing Israel and the surrounding Arab states. One of his more significant reports focused on the emigration of persecuted Christians from the Middle East. In the past