Analyst Expects Pendulum Swing in November

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The November elections are seven weeks from Tuesday, and the latest predictions are not pretty for the party in power.

Poll after poll has shown Democrats at risk of losing a significant number of seats.

Respected political analyst, Larry Sabato, known for his neutral reporting, says Republicans have a good shot at winning the House and the Senate.

Congress is back in session, but in a matter of weeks the balance of power is expected to shift.

"Our sense of this election, and everything that we've studied about it indicates that this is going to be a pendulum swing, and Republicans are going to do very, very well in every category," Sabato said.

Sabato runs the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, and for the past decade his "crystal ball" prediction machine has developed a good track record of calling political races.

Midterm elections are historically not good for the party in control, and Democrats are facing a headwind.

They promised a "recovery summer," but looking back, it was more like a relapse.

Unemployment is up, foreclosures continue to plague American neighborhoods and enthusiasm among conservative voters is through the roof.

Republicans need 39 seats to take control of the House, and Sabato's crystal ball predicts they'll pick up a net of 47 seats.

"Don't be surprised if that number on our website is raised into the 50's before the end of this campaign," Sabato said.

In the Senate, Sabato's crystal ball predicts Republicans will pick up eight or nine seats.

They need 10 to win full control, but Sabato says there may be some ways around that.

"If they gained nine seats instead of ten then they go to Senator Lieberman, and Sen. Lieberman may choose to switch caucuses," Sabato said.

"Conservative Democratic Senator Ben Nelson from Nebraska who's up for re-election in 2012 and has a very difficult race, my guess is he would be approached so lots of things can happen if Republicans even get close to ten," Sabato said.

Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties six times, and every time that happened, the Senate flipped too, even when pundits said it couldn't happen.

"There's a massive gap of enthusiasm between Democratic voters and Republican voters, and that will help Republicans to do well across the board," Sabato said.

In politics, analysts and candidates know that it's what they don't know that can make the difference in the end.

But for now, Sabato and his team of analysts predict Republicans win in November, so it's really just a matter of how big.

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CBN News
Jennifer Wishon

Jennifer Wishon

CBN News White House Correspondent

Jennifer Wishon is the White House correspondent for CBN News based in the network’s Washington, D.C. Bureau.  Before taking over the White House beat, Jennifer covered Capitol Hill and other national news, from the economy to the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Follow Jennifer on Twitter @JenniferWishon and "like" her at