Midterm Predictions: Obama Presidency On the Ballot

In a deeply divided nation, both Democrats and Republicans surprisingly agree on the central issue: the Obama presidency is on the ballot, even if he is not. 

The president himself let that ring out loud and clear, weeks before Election Day, and it appears Democrats are about to pay the price with nearly every indicator showing Republicans are likely to take the U.S. Senate and add to their majority in the House.

Democrats may be able to claim some victories in big state governor's races, but they will probably lose a few as well.

The presidential party traditionally does poorly in the sixth year of a two-term president. This year is no exception, and the Democrats appear to be headed for a thorough repudiation.

U.S. Senate

Democrats control the chamber, 53-45, with the two Independents (Vermont Socialist Bernie Sanders and Maine's Angus King) caucusing with the Democrats. As the campaign winds into its final hours, Republicans are solid favorites to take away three Senate seats in West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana.

Arkansas is also slipping away from the Democrats, and Iowa may be as well. If the GOP holds its three endangered seats in Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas (not a sure bet at this hour), they would need just one more seat from the following states: Alaska, Louisiana, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

Republicans lead in three of those states, are tied in one, and narrowly trail in another.

Predicted Result: GOP loses Kansas, but takes away eight seats: West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska, Colorado, and Louisiana for a net gain of seven, winning majority control.

With a highly energized and angry Republican electorate, the prospects of Democrats running the table to preserve a tiny majority control do not look favorable.

As if that weren't enough, according to data by the liberal Huffington Post, President Barack Obama's approval rating is at or below 39 percent in ten states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Many of them hold key races for governor or the Senate.

The president also matched his all-time low (44 percent) in national approval ratings in the Washington Post-ABC News survey released Sunday.

If a bigger wave materializes--not likely--they could add to that majority from several races in other states: North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Michigan, and even Minnesota. The GOP has one further way to expand its possible majority by persuading current senators who now caucus with the Democrats to caucus with the Republicans. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Angus King of Maine come to mind.

One note: It is very possible that voters in Louisiana and Georgia will give no candidate 50 percent on Tuesday, meaning that runoff results won't be known until December (Louisiana) and January (Georgia).

Despite all their complaining about "fat cat" big money donors for the GOP, Democrats have outspent Republicans. And their vaunted get-out-the-vote machinery, where a sweeping computer base helps them micro-target voters at the precinct level could hold the losses in check in a number of close races. But a wave of voter dissatisfaction is still a wave.

One thing Republicans should keep in mind: if they win Tuesday they may be only "renting" the Senate for a couple of years.

In 2016, they must defend 24 seats, while Democrats have to defend just 10. And if there is anything we can approach as a certainty in the coming two years, it is that President Obama will mobilize all his political skills against the new "enemy" in Washington, a Senate with a Republican Majority Leader. He will get lots of help from the establishment media.

If the GOP can't or won't articulate to the American people what it stands for in those 24 months, the legislative prospects for 2016 will not look bright.

Two likely new GOP senators didn't get much attention this cycle because their races weren't close, but both could be solid contributors to the new majority. Nebraska's Ben Sasse, president of a small college, and Oklahoma's James Lankford, currently a congressman, are young, bright and both have a heart for Israel.

Two others, Joni Ernst in Iowa and Cory Gardner in Colorado, ran terrific campaigns in bluish states and bear watching if they win. Also, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia could be a persuasive voice on energy issues. The same for Iraq veteran Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Another Iraq veteran, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, could grab some attention with strong issue stands and his 6 foot, 6 inch frame.

U.S. House

House Speaker John Boehner hopes that after Tuesday, Republicans will hold their greatest majority since the end of World War II. Their House margin is currently 233-199 with three vacancies.

They've initiated their "Drive for 245," which would give them that majority. The prognosticators in Washington project the GOP gain to be between 8 and 15 seats. We'll give them 11, which would put them right at 245 (factoring in two vacancies going to Republicans and one to Democrats).
 
Governors

People who forecast politics for a living are staying about as far away from predictions in the races for governor as Democrats running for Senate have stayed away from the president. Incumbents from both parties are embroiled in tight races in big states.

Republicans have more states to defend, and will probably lose some of their 29-21 edge in governorships. They will keep control in Ohio and Texas, but will lose Pennsylvania.

Two embattled governors--Scott Walker in Wisconsin and Sam Brownback in Kansas--may survive by narrow margins. Michigan and Florida are too close to call.

Columnist George Will calls Illinois the "worst governed state in the nation," and Democrats could lose there. They also could easily lose Massachusetts and Connecticut. Democrats will keep the statehouses in New York and California.