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Blue Wave or Blue Bust? The Key Senate Races and the Reason Democrats May Actually Lose Seats

Blue Wave or Blue Bust? The Key Senate Races and the Reason Democrats May Actually Lose Seats Read Transcript


- Do you remember the Presidentialelection, run up to it?

I got so sick of hearing thoseguys on FOX and the other

channels saying "Well there'sno path to an election,

there's no path for Trumpto win, there's no path."

Well, we got our fearlessforecast through John Wagge here

and the two of us kind ofput our heads together and we

figured those states whereTrump would probably win and

indeed there was a path andwe knew it was going to happen

that he'd win the electoralcollege and everybody, everybody

said it wasn't gonnahappen but it did happen

and he's sitting in the White House.

Well John Wagge's back with us

John, where you coming from brother?

- Well, Pat, that electionwas something else and I took

courage from you becauseyou had it early on

and so it was ah...

- You know, we figured thosestates though, I mean you

figure state after state, youknow the one's he's gonna win,

but the other guys kept,they wouldn't admit it.

- Well, you know, Ibelieve on election day,

the New York Times saidthere was a 93% chance

of Hillary Clinton winningon election day, so you know

(laughter)

there was a lot of fooling going on.

- 93%?

- Yeah.

- No wonder she was so surprised.

- And in many ways Pat,this mid term election is

a continuation of whathappened in 2016 because we've

seen this ah, real clash,real battle going on against

President Trump personally andagainst his agenda and it's

playing right into the nextah three weeks of the campaign

and into November.

- Alright, let's talk aboutthe Senate, they're the ones

you keyed in, we've got,well we've got North Dakota

we've got Missouri, we've gotMontana, so tell us about...

- Yeah, we have a look atthe map there, the red states

are the four states out ofnine Republicans defending that

are hotly contested so, theDemocrats need to win two seats

to take control of the Senate.

So you see there, Nevada,Arizona, Texas and Tennessee are

the states that they can work from.

But there are six states thatthe Democrats have to defend

because the Republicansare only defending nine and

the Democrats are defending all the rest.

So, there are six states thatthe Democrats have to hold

on to in order to take over the Senate.

So it's really, although we'vebeen hearing about the blue

wave for months and monthsand months now right?

It's really more of a situationwhere the Democrats would

have to run the table inorder for that to happen.

- Talk about thevulnerable Democrat seats.

- Okay,

So, starting in

North Dakota, that's the best

place to start because HeidiHeitkamp is running against

Kevin Cramer, CongressmanCramer in North Dakota

and it's upwards of, gettingclose to a double digit

lead for Cramer so, that's oneseat that the Democrats are

she's probably the most likelyto lose of all the endangered

Senators in both parties.

- She voted against Kavanaugh by the way.

- She voted against Kavanaugh,she made her decision just a

few days before the Kavanaughhearing and we have to say

that the Kavanaugh hearinghas the whole fight

over Kavanaugh and the due process issues

and innocent until proven guilty,

all those things, havemade a difference in

these Senate races in the polls.

- Alright, North Dakotagoes Republican, who...

- Yeah, it's likely to at this point.

The more iffy race is theMissouri Senate race where

Claire McCaskill alsovoted no on Kavanaugh.

She's up againsg Josh Hawleywho's a young Attorney General

of Missouri and he hasbeen pounding away at the

Supreme Court issue and who will vote

in the interest of Missourianswho like to see Trumps pick.

You know Trump won by 19points in Missouri so,

he's got a stable of

support there to begin with.

So he's pounding awayat the Kavanaugh issue.

- Have you seen any polls on Missouri yet?

- Well yes, I've seen a number of polls,

the recent one's have saidthat McCaskill is ahead but

the most recent ones haveHawley pulling into the lead

and so we'll see.

- Pulling into the lead?

Well, I think she's vulnerable.

- Statistically, theaverage of polls is a tie

roughly a tie, 46 - 46in one poll to be exact.

So, it's dead even and thatbrings us back to turn out,

what's going to happen, who'sgoing to bring their base

to the polls between now and then.

Of course many states youcan start voting now already.

- Now, lets go to the next one,

the Democrats have got to defend.

- Yeah, they've gotta defend Montana.

- Alright.

- And that's a statewhere President Trump will

be there again tomorrow. Ithink this is his third visit

I'm not sure but he's goingout West this week again

because he has kind ofa personal feeling about

John Tester, the Senator fromMontana who torpedoed his

choice Ronny Jackson tobecome the head of the

Veterans Administration.

So, Tester has about atwo point edge against

Matt Rosendale who hasbeen the Attorney General

so he has won statewide inMontana so a two point edge for

an incumbent Senator is notexactly you know a comfortable

lead going into the next three weeks.

- He's not ahead though,

I mean he's not behind at this point.

- He's not behind, but whenyou get these two point margins

you really can't tell Pat.

We don't know where it really stands,

we just know it's close.

- Next one.

- Also there's West Virginia,

- Yes.

we know about that one.

The only Senator in the entireUS Senate, Democrat to vote

for Judge Kavanaugh.

Joe Manchin seems to have afairly comfortable lead in these

close races against PatrickMorrissey but it's not a done

deal, he's in the uppersingle digits with a lead.

- Manchin is such a good guy,I'd hate to see him go down.

I think Trump is not goingto campaign in West Virginia.

- Well you wonder too, Pat,if Republicans were to make

a gain, even gain seats whichis very possible in this

election, that whetherManchin would switch parties.

- The Govenor switched.

- Yeah, and the Govenor didswitch and you know he's going

to be awfully lonely in theDemocratic Caucus next year

after his vote.

(laughter)

- Alright, what else you got?

- Well, you know I guesswe'll talk briefly about the

Republican seats that they have to defend.

So, two of those seats,

Arizona...

Arizona and Tennessee are open

seats, Bob Corker's seat and Jeff Flake's

seat are both open.

- Taylor Swift came outagainst the Republican.

- She did, she came out andsaid there's no way that people

in Tennessee should supportMarsha Blackburn, the Republican

candidate and Marsha Blackburn'snumbers began going up

right after that.

(laughter)

So, she's really, New YorkTimes has a 14 point edge for

Marsha Blackburn at this point.

Now, that could be anoutlier we don't know

but that's the most recent poll.

- So we'll see what happens.

- So that's one that the Republicans

are breathing easier over.

- Aright.

- Arizona, Martha McSally isrunning against Kyrsten Sinema.

Sinema has had the lead mostof the Summer and into the Fall

but McSally is starting to pullup and even a little ahead.

She is the first femaleUS Combat Pilot and is an

Iraq War Veteran, decorated,and she's moving up.

- How about that Democrat,she's said some things

that they're are bringingup that's kind of stupid.

- Yeah, Sinema's gotten introuble in the past week because

some quotes of hers wereuncovered where she said that

Arizona is like the meth lab for democracy

and that hasn't helped her.

She also called Republicanoffice holders in Arizona crazy

and that's on video tape, sothose are things that aren't

playing well for her right now.

- Okay.

- And then you have Ted Cruzin Texas which Democrats have

been salivating over possibility that

they could defeat Cruz.

He's got about a nine pointlead now in one poll over

Beto O'Rourke who is way well financed,

but he's got some issues of his own.

- Well they say that he'slike one of the Kennedy's and

they are going into that real big time but

- Yeah.

- I can't imagine Texas going Democrat.

- It doesn't look like it atthis point, so you see that the

windows are close and thefinal race for Republicans to

defend is Nevada, that'sprobably the toughest one because

the Harry Reid machineis still in place for

Dean Heller is the Republicanincumbent and Jacky Rosen

is a Congresswoman from Las Vegas.

Las Vegas and Reno have 86%

of the votes in Nevada.

So if the Reid machine is inoperation it's trouble for

Heller, but the good news forRepublicans is that Heller

has pulled up and is now two points ahead

in a couple of the polls.

- Oh, he is?

- So he's kind of in the samepoint on the other side of the

party line as Tester.

He's an incumbant Senatorwho's got a two point lead, we

don't know how it's going to go.

- Alright, put it all togetherand when the game is over,

how do you predict, when theSenate is reconstituted...

- Well I get to predict againin a couple three weeks,

(laughter)

But right now, I would saybased on the polls themselves,

Republicans would gain twoSenate seats right now.

- Gain two?

- So that whole issue ofSupreme Court hearings and who

would be head of the JudiciaryCommittee and all those

things, they'd remain inRepublican hands if it happened

right now and we'll seewho mobilizes turn over or

turn out best over the next three weeks.

- John we want to talk aboutthe House, can you tell us

about that tomorrow?

- Well, I'll talk to youin a couple of weeks,

I'll be back in a couple weeks.

(laughter)

The House is much morefavorable to Democrats than the

Senate is but it doesn't meanthat they've got a lock on it.

It's very very close rightnow with three weeks out.

- They are pouring the moneyinto this second Congressional

District here, I mean theyare really going after it.

- It's really all going tocome out to turn out Pat as it

always does, but this one,both bases are mobilized.

Republicans weren't beforethe Kavanaugh hearings.

Now after the treatment ofKavanaugh, they are mobilized,

and they may be, in come cases,

more mobilized than the Democrats.

We know Democrats are goingto be mobilized in the very

bluest states and CongressionalDistricts but what about

those swing Districts, howmobilized are they there?

And you know Republicans aregoing to be more than they

would've been three weeks ago.

- The prospect of the HouseJudiciary Committee falling to

Jerry Nadler and doing nothingbut impeachment hearings for

the next four or five years,or two years if nothing else,

impeachment against Kavanaugh,

impeachment against the President.

Is that a prospect we look forward to?

- No and you'll have plentyof ads right here in Virginia

Beach we've got ads locallytying the Democratic candidate

to Nancy Pelosi and so youcan bet she's good for another

round of ads in the next three weeks.

(laughter)

- Well thank you John.

John Wagge, our fearless prognosticator.

We hit it on with the President,I mean we were one of the

few media outlets thatcalled it correctly and

John's fearless forecasting

along with my help along the way we

called it off and so the Senatelooks like they might pick

up a couple seats and that'sso important but the House race

is depending on whether yougo to the polls and vote.

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