Blue Wave or Blue Bust? The Key Senate Races and the Reason Democrats May Actually Lose Seats
- Do you remember the Presidentialelection, run up to it?
I got so sick of hearing thoseguys on FOX and the other
channels saying "Well there'sno path to an election,
there's no path for Trumpto win, there's no path."
Well, we got our fearlessforecast through John Wagge here
and the two of us kind ofput our heads together and we
figured those states whereTrump would probably win and
indeed there was a path andwe knew it was going to happen
that he'd win the electoralcollege and everybody, everybody
said it wasn't gonnahappen but it did happen
and he's sitting in the White House.
Well John Wagge's back with us
John, where you coming from brother?
- Well, Pat, that electionwas something else and I took
courage from you becauseyou had it early on
and so it was ah...
- You know, we figured thosestates though, I mean you
figure state after state, youknow the one's he's gonna win,
but the other guys kept,they wouldn't admit it.
- Well, you know, Ibelieve on election day,
the New York Times saidthere was a 93% chance
of Hillary Clinton winningon election day, so you know
there was a lot of fooling going on.
- No wonder she was so surprised.
- And in many ways Pat,this mid term election is
a continuation of whathappened in 2016 because we've
seen this ah, real clash,real battle going on against
President Trump personally andagainst his agenda and it's
playing right into the nextah three weeks of the campaign
and into November.
- Alright, let's talk aboutthe Senate, they're the ones
you keyed in, we've got,well we've got North Dakota
we've got Missouri, we've gotMontana, so tell us about...
- Yeah, we have a look atthe map there, the red states
are the four states out ofnine Republicans defending that
are hotly contested so, theDemocrats need to win two seats
to take control of the Senate.
So you see there, Nevada,Arizona, Texas and Tennessee are
the states that they can work from.
But there are six states thatthe Democrats have to defend
because the Republicansare only defending nine and
the Democrats are defending all the rest.
So, there are six states thatthe Democrats have to hold
on to in order to take over the Senate.
So it's really, although we'vebeen hearing about the blue
wave for months and monthsand months now right?
It's really more of a situationwhere the Democrats would
have to run the table inorder for that to happen.
- Talk about thevulnerable Democrat seats.
So, starting in
North Dakota, that's the best
place to start because HeidiHeitkamp is running against
Kevin Cramer, CongressmanCramer in North Dakota
and it's upwards of, gettingclose to a double digit
lead for Cramer so, that's oneseat that the Democrats are
she's probably the most likelyto lose of all the endangered
Senators in both parties.
- She voted against Kavanaugh by the way.
- She voted against Kavanaugh,she made her decision just a
few days before the Kavanaughhearing and we have to say
that the Kavanaugh hearinghas the whole fight
over Kavanaugh and the due process issues
and innocent until proven guilty,
all those things, havemade a difference in
these Senate races in the polls.
- Alright, North Dakotagoes Republican, who...
- Yeah, it's likely to at this point.
The more iffy race is theMissouri Senate race where
Claire McCaskill alsovoted no on Kavanaugh.
She's up againsg Josh Hawleywho's a young Attorney General
of Missouri and he hasbeen pounding away at the
Supreme Court issue and who will vote
in the interest of Missourianswho like to see Trumps pick.
You know Trump won by 19points in Missouri so,
he's got a stable of
support there to begin with.
So he's pounding awayat the Kavanaugh issue.
- Have you seen any polls on Missouri yet?
- Well yes, I've seen a number of polls,
the recent one's have saidthat McCaskill is ahead but
the most recent ones haveHawley pulling into the lead
and so we'll see.
- Pulling into the lead?
Well, I think she's vulnerable.
- Statistically, theaverage of polls is a tie
roughly a tie, 46 - 46in one poll to be exact.
So, it's dead even and thatbrings us back to turn out,
what's going to happen, who'sgoing to bring their base
to the polls between now and then.
Of course many states youcan start voting now already.
- Now, lets go to the next one,
the Democrats have got to defend.
- Yeah, they've gotta defend Montana.
- And that's a statewhere President Trump will
be there again tomorrow. Ithink this is his third visit
I'm not sure but he's goingout West this week again
because he has kind ofa personal feeling about
John Tester, the Senator fromMontana who torpedoed his
choice Ronny Jackson tobecome the head of the
So, Tester has about atwo point edge against
Matt Rosendale who hasbeen the Attorney General
so he has won statewide inMontana so a two point edge for
an incumbent Senator is notexactly you know a comfortable
lead going into the next three weeks.
- He's not ahead though,
I mean he's not behind at this point.
- He's not behind, but whenyou get these two point margins
you really can't tell Pat.
We don't know where it really stands,
we just know it's close.
- Next one.
- Also there's West Virginia,
we know about that one.
The only Senator in the entireUS Senate, Democrat to vote
for Judge Kavanaugh.
Joe Manchin seems to have afairly comfortable lead in these
close races against PatrickMorrissey but it's not a done
deal, he's in the uppersingle digits with a lead.
- Manchin is such a good guy,I'd hate to see him go down.
I think Trump is not goingto campaign in West Virginia.
- Well you wonder too, Pat,if Republicans were to make
a gain, even gain seats whichis very possible in this
election, that whetherManchin would switch parties.
- The Govenor switched.
- Yeah, and the Govenor didswitch and you know he's going
to be awfully lonely in theDemocratic Caucus next year
after his vote.
- Alright, what else you got?
- Well, you know I guesswe'll talk briefly about the
Republican seats that they have to defend.
So, two of those seats,
Arizona and Tennessee are open
seats, Bob Corker's seat and Jeff Flake's
seat are both open.
- Taylor Swift came outagainst the Republican.
- She did, she came out andsaid there's no way that people
in Tennessee should supportMarsha Blackburn, the Republican
candidate and Marsha Blackburn'snumbers began going up
right after that.
So, she's really, New YorkTimes has a 14 point edge for
Marsha Blackburn at this point.
Now, that could be anoutlier we don't know
but that's the most recent poll.
- So we'll see what happens.
- So that's one that the Republicans
are breathing easier over.
- Arizona, Martha McSally isrunning against Kyrsten Sinema.
Sinema has had the lead mostof the Summer and into the Fall
but McSally is starting to pullup and even a little ahead.
She is the first femaleUS Combat Pilot and is an
Iraq War Veteran, decorated,and she's moving up.
- How about that Democrat,she's said some things
that they're are bringingup that's kind of stupid.
- Yeah, Sinema's gotten introuble in the past week because
some quotes of hers wereuncovered where she said that
Arizona is like the meth lab for democracy
and that hasn't helped her.
She also called Republicanoffice holders in Arizona crazy
and that's on video tape, sothose are things that aren't
playing well for her right now.
- And then you have Ted Cruzin Texas which Democrats have
been salivating over possibility that
they could defeat Cruz.
He's got about a nine pointlead now in one poll over
Beto O'Rourke who is way well financed,
but he's got some issues of his own.
- Well they say that he'slike one of the Kennedy's and
they are going into that real big time but
- I can't imagine Texas going Democrat.
- It doesn't look like it atthis point, so you see that the
windows are close and thefinal race for Republicans to
defend is Nevada, that'sprobably the toughest one because
the Harry Reid machineis still in place for
Dean Heller is the Republicanincumbent and Jacky Rosen
is a Congresswoman from Las Vegas.
Las Vegas and Reno have 86%
of the votes in Nevada.
So if the Reid machine is inoperation it's trouble for
Heller, but the good news forRepublicans is that Heller
has pulled up and is now two points ahead
in a couple of the polls.
- Oh, he is?
- So he's kind of in the samepoint on the other side of the
party line as Tester.
He's an incumbant Senatorwho's got a two point lead, we
don't know how it's going to go.
- Alright, put it all togetherand when the game is over,
how do you predict, when theSenate is reconstituted...
- Well I get to predict againin a couple three weeks,
But right now, I would saybased on the polls themselves,
Republicans would gain twoSenate seats right now.
- Gain two?
- So that whole issue ofSupreme Court hearings and who
would be head of the JudiciaryCommittee and all those
things, they'd remain inRepublican hands if it happened
right now and we'll seewho mobilizes turn over or
turn out best over the next three weeks.
- John we want to talk aboutthe House, can you tell us
about that tomorrow?
- Well, I'll talk to youin a couple of weeks,
I'll be back in a couple weeks.
The House is much morefavorable to Democrats than the
Senate is but it doesn't meanthat they've got a lock on it.
It's very very close rightnow with three weeks out.
- They are pouring the moneyinto this second Congressional
District here, I mean theyare really going after it.
- It's really all going tocome out to turn out Pat as it
always does, but this one,both bases are mobilized.
Republicans weren't beforethe Kavanaugh hearings.
Now after the treatment ofKavanaugh, they are mobilized,
and they may be, in come cases,
more mobilized than the Democrats.
We know Democrats are goingto be mobilized in the very
bluest states and CongressionalDistricts but what about
those swing Districts, howmobilized are they there?
And you know Republicans aregoing to be more than they
would've been three weeks ago.
- The prospect of the HouseJudiciary Committee falling to
Jerry Nadler and doing nothingbut impeachment hearings for
the next four or five years,or two years if nothing else,
impeachment against Kavanaugh,
impeachment against the President.
Is that a prospect we look forward to?
- No and you'll have plentyof ads right here in Virginia
Beach we've got ads locallytying the Democratic candidate
to Nancy Pelosi and so youcan bet she's good for another
round of ads in the next three weeks.
- Well thank you John.
John Wagge, our fearless prognosticator.
We hit it on with the President,I mean we were one of the
few media outlets thatcalled it correctly and
John's fearless forecasting
along with my help along the way we
called it off and so the Senatelooks like they might pick
up a couple seats and that'sso important but the House race
is depending on whether yougo to the polls and vote.