Here's What CBN News Will Be Watching on Election Night in the Battle for the House
- Well, our political analyst,John Waage, is back again!
This time, we look atthe all important battle
for the House of Representatives.
And John, you're one ofthe few people who think
the House is still in play.
Everybody has said, "Oh,we write off the house
"as a blue wave."
The blue wave is gettingbroken up on the rocks
of something or other.
Tell us about your feeling.
- My feeling is, I think Jennifer's story
reflected it as far as the Senate race.
People at the grassrootslevel seem to have more sense
than all the collectivepunditry that goes on
in Washington, DC and New York.
We have to get back to God, you know,
that's what the womansaid in Jennifer's story.
I think that in spite of the numbers,
the generic ballot is overwhelmingly
in favor of democrats forthe House of Representatives.
But the generic ballot does not decide
who keeps control of theHouse of Representatives.
So, I think for one thing,
there hasn't been theturning that needs to happen
before election day,
but there are still six days left,
five days left.
People are voting even as we speak,
but I think that collective wisdom
of the media establishmentin Washington and New York
was wrong in 2016.
I'm not convinced they're right this time,
but they certainly havethe numbers on their side
right now concerning the House.
- Have you identified certain,
for example, we live here in the second
Congessional district,which is Virginia Beach,
and they have pouredmore money into that race
than has ever happened in history.
I talked last night to Scott Taylor
who's the incumbent republican
and he indicated that initial,
they've got some initialballoting, you know,
that usually the democrats are way ahead.
He said, this time, itisn't showing up that way,
that people are gettingvotes and it looks like it's
about even which wouldmake the republicans
come out really well.
What do you think?
Are there any key districtsas you've pointed out
that might be in playthat you wanna talk about?
- Well, specifically not,
we've chosen 10 districts,
but they're not necessarilygoing to tell us the story,
but these are districts thatnine of em are Republican
held seats, either openseats vacated by somebody
who resigned or republicanincumbents struggling
against the democrat.
- [Pat] Talk about a couple of em.
- Well, for instance, thethird district in Kentucky
where Andy Barr is facinga democrat, Amy McGrath,
and in that race, ya know,
he's from the Lexingtonarea which would generally
be a red district buthe's been in some trouble.
You mentioned Scott Taylorright here in Virginia Beach.
I've been struck by theflurry of negative advertising
that we've seen and thedemocrats have poured
a lot of money around the country into em.
Dana Rohrabacher, for instance,
in California's 48th district.
This is a guy who's beenin Congress for what,
close to 30 years?
- He was a strong speech writer,
a strong conservative.
- And he's being challengedby a former republican
in Orange County and he has a narrow lead.
But that's one of the things,
one of the bugaboos about this year
and this election is that I'm not sure
we can trust the pollsand I know that you always
fall back on well, the pollsare wrong, but in this case,
I think they might really be wrong
and I don't think theyare properly measuring the
intensity of support for President Trump.
Even though he's not on the ballot,
he is, he has put himselfin the middle on the ballot.
If we looked at the news cycleover the last four weeks,
it's just been incredible.
I mean, they've thrown everything but the
kitchen sink at him and nowhe's made his own decision
to go on the immigration, ya know,
the executive order which Dale reported on
an even though that was his decision,
there might be a method to his madness.
- He's gone anunprecedented 22 times which
no president has evercampaigned like he has.
I mean, he's really going out there.
- He has gone all out andthe lesson of 2016 is that
money doesn't necessarilyturn out to be the predictor.
But there is a big uphill climb in
each of these individual435 races for the House.
- There's another racethat seems to be determined
as the seventh district up in Richmond.
There's a guy named Bratthat beat Eric Cantor
and Brat took over as a republican.
Have you got any word on that one?
- You know, the polls show either a slight
one or two point lead for the democrat
which would be in the margin of error
or a slight lead for Brat.
But it's gonna be close and again,
this is another one ofthose situations where
turnout is gonna be everything.
- Talk about the numbers.
How many seats are held byrepublicans that are in play
and how many do the democrats have to win
in order to take over?
- OK, the democrats need23 seats to take over the
House of Representatives.
There's 235 republicans now,
seven vacancies and 193 democrats.
So, they need 23 and most of the polling
by people who arefollowing it race by race
show that the democratshave enough to win the House
at this point.
But these races aren't over.
There's still several daysleft and we don't know who--
- You mentioned another one in California.
There's a guy named Duncan Hunter
who's the son of the former Congressman.
- Right, narrow narrow leadin California right now.
Two to three point lead.
- He's ahead by two--
- He's ahead by two to three points,
but these ones where they'rebehind by two or three points
or ahead by two or three points,
those can literally go either way.
- We mentioned Michiganand having to do with
the republican James iscoming up so dramatically
in Michigan and otherlesser offices the same way.
- Yeah, the state officefor governor is showing
the democrat ahead butthe republican had surged.
Another thing Pat, that I should mention,
concerning the House races'cause I think it could be
important on election night.
That is that a poll taken,
it was an article in Vox back in July,
and senior Americans wereabsolutely committed by
much higher numbers than millennials.
We know the standardthinking is that millennials,
ya know, talk democrat but thenthey don't go to the polls.
Now, we have seen around the country
a surge in young voters.
There's definitely been asurge in democratic turnout
in the primaries and that sort of thing.
But the senior citizens I'm talking to,
if they could vote twice, they would.
I think part of that isthat there's kind of a
laissez-faire attitudeamong younger voters
about socialism and oldervoters remember the cold war.
They know what socialismhas done to societies.
They saw the wall fall andI think that they're just,
they're alarmed not only by the,
just the media barrage against Trump,
but also about the whole business of
outright socialistscampaigning as democrats now
and I think that's gonna have an effect
by the time we get to Tuesday.
- They talk about healthcare.
I'm not sure how thatbecomes a democrat issue
because it was Obama care everybody hated
and one vote kept therepublicans from turning it over.
Now they're only thislousy healthcare system.
What is it?
- I think the nash of nationsthat went on in Washington,
people don't follow that.
What they are is they'rescared and they're vulnerable
to the democratic attacksthat say these people voted
not to have pre-existingconditions covered
under insurance policies.
People go, well I'd bettervote democrat or I'm gonna
lose whatever healthcare I can get.
I think that's the general theme
and it's really hard forrepublicans to argue,
look, I took this procedural vote
because we were planningto repeal and replace
Obamacare, we didn't get to the replace
because of all the democrats
and a couple renegade republicans
and that's a hard message to get through
when you're in town halls where people are
talking about theirterrible experience they had
with their brother who had cancer.
- Well, I noticed that they'regoing against Pelosi too.
I mean, it's like shebecomes the poster child
of the attack ads.
- Yeah and she was on Colbert last night
saying that we will win theHouse of Representatives
and Colbert accused herof jinxing the democrats.
They said you're not onHillary's fireowrks bar, ya know,
so they feel that confidentabout it but we'll see.
- You can make a prediction of how many
votes it'll be when it's all over with?
- I'll do the how many votes on Monday,
but I still sayRepublicans keep the House.
- [Pat] You do say they keep the--
- I think republicansare gonna keep the house.
And I'll add seats in the Senate.
- Well, you thought there would be, what,
four to five republicanadd in seats in the Senate?
- Yeah and that doesn't lookgood on polls right now.
It looks more like two.
But I still think that there'sgoing to be this pocket
of voters that is somehowbeing missed in the polling
that's gonna up that number.
- How bout that race in Arizona?
That McSally thing?
I mean, she, I just can'tunderstand why she wouldn't be
way, way ahead.
- Well, ya know, there are someangry Arizonians over there.
Republican Senatorspreviously and a lot of young
and independent votersare excited about Sinema
in spite of the quotesthat she's famous for,
calling Arizona the meth lab of democracy.
It doesn't seem to offendtoo many young people
in independent states.
- Be OK to go join the Taliban?
- I still think that McSallyis going to come through
in the end.
There was a six point leadfor Sinema in one of the
latest polls but if youfactor in the green party
who is on the ballot, itgoes down to three points.
It's within margins of error there.
There are close Senateraces all over the map
and the bottom line remains.
Republicans have to defend four
and there are about 10 thatdemocrats have to defend.
So, the numbers are inthe republicans favor.
We'll see how it works.
- So you're gonna comeback and give us a more
- I'll give specific numbers on Monday,
the day before election day.
- Monday, we'll hold him,
but right now, your forecast is
republicans hold the Houseand gain in the Senate.
- Yes, yes.
- We'll see what happens.
Ladies and gentlemen, you heard it here
and we'll see what happens.
You can watch, of course,live election night coverage
on our CBN News channel.
To find the channel in your area,
go to CBN News website.
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