Russia-Ukraine Stalemate: 1-Year into the War, How We Arrived Here and Where It's Heading

January 19th, 2022. As the Russian Army amasses troops, tanks, and artillery near Ukraine's eastern border, President Biden appears to clear a way for Vladimir Putin to make his move into Ukraine.

"If it invades, and it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it is a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and what not to do etcetera," Biden explained during a national press conference. "My guess is he will win. He has to do something." 

But Putin saw a response creating the opposite outcome from the one he desired: NATO and the European Union say they are now united, stronger, and more determined to defend their democracies. So too, is Ukraine. 

Adrian Kubicki, counsel general for the Polish government in New York City, predicts tougher times with a new chapter in the war. "Obviously, for Putin, this is something also about saving face. After one year of, let's put it this way, an unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine, he must finally make some progress, which means that it will be very harsh for Ukrainians." 
 
The war has already proven costly to the Ukrainians, and much of the country lies in ruins. Bombed-out power stations, businesses, and homes have left many without electricity, food, and water. Eight million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries, and more than five million are internally displaced.

The Ukrainian government reports as many as 40,000 civilians and 10,000 troops have died in the conflict. Other estimates put the number at more than 100,000 Ukrainians killed. Russia says it has lost 6,000 troops in the war.

Military historian Mark Moyar urges caution about definitively determining which side is winning the war based on the known extent of destruction and casualties. "I think it's we've got to be careful about drawing any conclusions about who's stronger here and recognize that, you know, it could be decades from now that we know the full truth about both sides."

At least one truth is clear: war with Russia has made Ukraine more determined to join the European Union and NATO.

And some European nations are concerned about Russia's intentions beyond Ukraine.
NATO may soon have two new members: Sweden and Finland. Those countries stayed neutral during the Cold War, but this renewed Russian aggression moved them into the NATO camp.

Last spring, Poland wanted to send Ukraine MIG-29 fighter jets so the Ukrainians could defend their airspace from Russian attacks. 
The Pentagon said no. For now, instead of jets, Poland is sending Ukraine German-made Leopard tanks, and Joe Biden is pledging to send them American-made Abrams tanks. 

Might the aggressive arming of Ukraine motivate China to arm Russia, escalate the conflict, and ignite World War Three?

"We know right now that Putin and the Russian military is not capable to invade NATO countries, any other countries in their struggle in Ukraine," Kubicki insisted. "So we are pretty sure that the measures we are taking are appropriate." 

President Biden pledged another half-billion dollars to Ukraine during his surprise visit to Kyiv.  

Despite more than $100 billion in help, Kubicki admits the war is unlikely to end anytime soon due to Putin's determination to win, no matter the cost.

"Since they were not able to gain this major victory within a couple of weeks, they will go for years just to kind of exhaust our patience and exhaust the resources that we allow ourselves to spend on Ukraine," Kubicki explained. "And in that scenario, pessimistic scenario would ultimately mean Russia's victory. "

What happens next mostly depends on domestic pressures on Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainians say a Russian late winter offensive is already underway. Yet they are determined to fight on, not only to win the war but to win the peace and control their destiny, free from Russian control and influence.